Storm Watch

Lorenzo Update: 8 am Tuesday courtesy of Irish Weather Online

This is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It shows Hurricane Lorenzo’s forecasted position and intensity at certain intervals over the next 5 days (in Z or GMT).

Firstly, we wont be getting a hurricane
The chart shows Lorenzo passing by the Azores tomorrow as a hurricane (solid symbol) but then passing up to Belmullet as an extra-tropical storm (hollow symbol) by 00Z (1 am Irish time) on Friday. This means it will have lost its tropical characteristics by then.

Windwise, the red circular lines show the radii of 34-knot (outer radius) and 50-knot (inner radius) mean windspeeds. Ireland is forecast to be within the 34-knot (gale force) radius by then, with the northwest inside the 50-knot (storm force) radius. These maximum speeds are below those of Ophelia, though more of the country will feel gales.

It should be highlighted that on a technical note these quoted speeds are 1-minute averages, not the 10-minute averages used by Met Éireann and other national agencies. As such, these numbers are about 10% higher, so the 50-knot radius would only be what Met Éireann would label about 45 knots when issuing their warnings. In other words, the winds won’t quite be as strong as the chart makes out.

Fergal – IWO