Storm Ellen Update

Weather forecast courtesy of Ireland’s Weather Channel

⚠️RAINFALL WARNING – FLOODING RISK

☔️WILL WE HAVE A STORM ELLEN THIS WEEKEND?

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There is a Status Yellow weather warning in effect for parts of the northwest, west and southwest through tomorrow and into the early hours of Thursday. During this period rain will become persistent and heavy in places, with the highest rainfall totals expected to reach between 20-40 mm in parts of the west and northwest, and up to 50 mm over mountainous areas of Galway, Mayo and Donegal. The rain is expected to lead to a renewed risk of flooding, with flooding on the River Shannon and its tributaries expected to increase.

There’s been mixed reports and lots of questions regarding the possibility of Storm Ellen developing over the weekend. At present there are mixed signals regarding this possibility. The ECMWF does indicate that two low pressure systems will develop close to Ireland and the UK between Saturday and Monday, either of which could technically become strong enough to become Storm Ellen, though mostly for rainfall related impacts. The GFS instead has a weaker system impacting Ireland and the UK through next Sunday, with a much deeper Atlantic Storm forecast to pass to the northwest of Ireland on Monday, having little direct impacts in this case.

This week has begun cold and unsettled with threat of another storm Ellen this weekend

Essentially the forecast remains too uncertain at present to give any clear definition as to whether we will have a Storm Ellen over the weekend, however the potential does exist at least according to the ECMWF model. In this case its best to stay up to date with our latest weather forecasts as we continue to keep you updated on this particularly disturbed period of weather.

Kindest regards,
Cathal Nolan