Possible Drought Warning

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The exceptionally settled spring conditions that we’ve enjoyed though much of March, April and May look set to continue well into the middle of the month, with little or no rainfall forecast between now and the 24th of the month. While many of us will welcome the prospect of further dry weather it does becoming a little concerning for the farming community and for water supplies later into the summer.

One of the reasons for this current settled spell of weather is due to a split in the jet stream, the ribbon of air that dictates the weather of Europe, with one branch pushing north towards Greenland, while the other arm of the jet stream pushes southwards across Spain and Portugal. This pattern leaves Ireland and the UK largely under the influence of high pressure, as indicated by today’s chart from the Met Office.

As was the case in 2018, exceptionally dry conditions during the second half of April and May paved the way for drought conditions to become established during the months of June and July, as near record temperatures and well below average rainfall causing the most acute drought in this country since 1995. With rainfall totals already exceptionally low, soil moisture deficits rising, very high evapotranspiration levels being recorded and well above average sunshine totals there is the risk that we may see the development of drought conditions during the end of May.

With the #Jetstream split to the north and south of the UK this week there is little to drive a change in our current weather pattern, resulting in the persistence of the current conditions pic.twitter.com/j7NXm67sui

— Met Office (@metoffice) June 5, 2018

Same conditions prevailed in 2018 as well
Soil moisture deficits are well above average for the time of year, with some areas already reporting deficits of between 45-53 mm. The majority of the country is experiencing water deficits of above 35 mm, with grass growth being significantly affected once deficits increase beyond 30-35 mm. Cork and Waterford are the only locations where deficits are negligible or even positive.

Frost may also become an issue for the gardeners and horticulturists through Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday night as rural temperatures may dip to as low as 0 or -1 degrees Celsius in some areas, with isolated readings getting down to -2 degrees Celsius. Ground frosts are likely throughout the early days of next week with values as low as -3 or -4 possible. This may cause significant damage to some crops and care is advised.

All your weather updates here Photo Credit Con Murphy Photograph

If you have any concerns regarding drought conditions, frost damage or any weather related topics then please feel free to drop me a message or comment below.

Or for a private consultation then feel free to contact me at cathalgnolan@gmail.com or call 0879723300.

With kindest regards,

Cathal Nolan